Montgomery R. vs Collins D. 
Match: Montgomery R. vs. Collins D.
Tournament: USA: Charleston WTA, clay
Date: 02 Wed Apr 2025
Score: Collins D. won 6-4, 6-3
Pre-Match Betting Analysis (Hypothetical): Assuming Collins D. was the favorite, a bet on her to win straight sets would have been a reasonable strategy. Given the actual score, a bet on Under 20.5 games would have been a winning bet.
Outcome: The favorite, Collins D., was successful.
The total games played (6+4+6+3 = 19) fell short of 20.5. So the "Under" bet was correct.
| Statistic | Montgomery R. | Collins D. |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 5 |
| Double Faults | 4 | 2 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 58% | 65% |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 60% | 75% |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 45% | 55% |
| Break Points Saved | 3/7 (43%) | 4/5 (80%) |
| 1st Return Points Won | 25% | 40% |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 45% | 55% |
| Break Points Converted | 1/5 (20%) | 4/7 (57%) |
| Service Points Won | 54% | 68% |
| Return Points Won | 32% | 46% |
| Total Points Won | 60 | 75 |
| Match Points Saved | N/A | N/A |
| Games Won | 7 | 12 |
| Service Games Won | 5/9 (56%) | 6/7 (86%) |
| Return Games Won | 2/7 (29%) | 4/9 (44%) |
| Total Games Won | 7 | 12 |
Based on the data, Collins D. dominated the match through a stronger serve and a more effective return game. Her higher 1st serve percentage and 1st serve points won put consistent pressure on Montgomery R.'s serve. Collins was also more clinical on break point opportunities (57% conversion rate vs 20%). Collins' superior performance on return, winning a higher percentage of both 1st and 2nd serve return points, was a crucial factor.
The clay court surface would generally favor players with solid defensive skills and the ability to construct points. While Montgomery R. may possess these qualities, Collins D. clearly executed her game plan more effectively. The mental toughness of Collins D. likely played a part, particularly in crucial moments like break points and holding serve under pressure.
While specific strategic adjustments during the match are difficult to pinpoint without detailed commentary, the numbers suggest that Montgomery R. struggled to adapt to Collins' serve and return pressure. Potentially, Montgomery was not able to utilize the surface to her advantage as well, in contrast to Collins.