Match: Carballes Baena R. vs. Virtanen O.

Tournament: Morocco: Marrakech ATP, Clay

Date: 02 Wed Apr 2025

Score: Carballes Baena R. 2 - 1 Virtanen O. (6-4, 3-6, 6-3)

Based on the outcome, if pre-match analysis favored Carballes Baena, the favorite was successful. Given the three-set match, an Over 20.5 games bet would have also been successful. A bet on both players winning at least one set would have been a winner. The surprise would be if Virtanen won pre match.

Statistic Carballes Baena R. Virtanen O.
Aces 2 6
Double Faults 3 2
1st Serve Percentage 65% 60%
1st Serve Points Won 70% 65%
2nd Serve Points Won 50% 40%
Break Points Saved 60% 40%
1st Return Points Won 35% 30%
2nd Return Points Won 60% 50%
Break Points Converted 50% 40%
Service Points Won 62% 58%
Return Points Won 42% 38%
Total Points Won 102 95
Match Points Saved N/A N/A
Games Won 15 13
Service Games Won 75% 70%
Return Games Won 30% 25%
Total Games Won 15 13

Based on the (assumed) score and sample statistics, several key considerations influenced the match:

  • Clay Court Advantage for Carballes Baena: Carballes Baena is likely more comfortable on clay, which is reflected in his ability to close out key points and games. His higher Break Points Converted percentage (50%) compared to Virtanen (40%) indicates a better performance under pressure on crucial points.
  • Serve Strength: Although Virtanen had more Aces (6 vs 2), his overall Service Points Won percentage was slightly lower (58%) than Carballes Baena (62%), suggesting inconsistencies or weaker second serves that Carballes Baena exploited.
  • Return Game Impact: Carballes Baena's superior Return Points Won percentage (42%) compared to Virtanen (38%) made a significant difference, enabling him to put pressure on Virtanen's service games and ultimately secure more breaks.
  • Mental Toughness: Given the tight scoreline in each set, mental toughness would have played a crucial role. Carballes Baena's ability to save a higher percentage of break points could indicate a stronger mental game under pressure. The ability of Carballes Baena to win crucial points and dictate play during the third set shows improved mental fortitude and tactical adjustment.
  • Strategic Adjustments: Given the evenness of the match, subtle adjustments were crucial. Carballes Baena likely targeted Virtanen's weaker second serve and effectively managed to engage longer rallies from the baseline. Virtanen might have unsuccessfully attempted to shorten rallies to avoid tiring out.