Market favors Noskova win as the most played outcome at around 56% implied probability, while over 20.5 games represents the least played with lower backing due to expectations of a straight-sets finish.
Gracheva shows upset potential through her 4-3 2026 record and slight edge in trailing 12-month win percentage on some surfaces, potentially halting Noskova's strong run against top-50 players if she exploits service inconsistencies. Probability around 44%. Confidence: 5/10.
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